By Ursula Muenzel, Ph.D.
Most of you know that my life unfolds in the triangle USA – Germany – Brazil. Last week I joined my husband in the latter country and I would like to share some observations of the situation I made here in Brazil – which is ambivalent at best. Brazil – a country I fell in love with – is characterized by a large “informal sector” which provides a livelihood to estimated 40 million people out of a population of 210 million, and by high inequality in income.
How this plays out in times of a pandemic I witnessed first-hand in Brasilia last weekend in the span of a few hours. The capital has one of the strictest “stay home” orders in place. Notwithstanding, parties – some with live musical entertainment – were going up in our neighborhood, the most affluent part of the city, as if nothing had happened. And I thought I couldn’t trust my ears when I heard even fireworks exploding in the distance. Fun as usual.
The next morning, a Sunday, we drove through the eerily deserted capital (not that it is ever as crowded as Sao Paulo or Rio) until we ran into what seemed to be a rather motley demonstration of motorbikes, small cars and trucks. They adamantly demanded “abertura” – the opening of businesses and lifting of the restrictions – and loudly voiced their support for President Bolsonaro, pledging “to be with you [Bolsonaro] till the end” and threatening to “oust the bunch of bandits”. This was obviously targeted at the president’s adversaries – governors, mayors, but also political rivals in his own cabinet – who advocate a lockdown, whereas Bolsonaro continues to ridicule the pandemic as a “little flu”. I initially took it as one of the staged demonstrations in support of the president. The misspellings on the makeshift posters told me otherwise: These were indeed desperate people who would rather face a – hypothetical – death by a virus than certain starvation by the lockdown.
The whole pandemic unfolds in the midst of a power struggle within the Bolsonaro administration with both sides instrumentalizing the crisis for their own purposes. Bolsonaro as a populist – who unlike Trump isn’t backed by a powerful party – understands that his power relies solely on these masses whom he promised prosperity. This is his priority he is willing to sacrifice everything for. A further lockdown as imposed by several governors and mayors would be counterproductive. Health minister Mandetta, on the other hand, advocates strict social distancing, openly contradicting Bolsonaro. Mandetta – who has his own political aspirations – is backed by two “heavy weights” in the cabinet, Attorney General Moro (the same who as a prosecutor investigated “Lava Jato”) and Minister of Economics Guedes, “a Chicago boy”. And what is even more crucial – he has the support of the almighty military. So far there is a stalemate while the governors and mayors try to take the necessary steps.
Ironically, the virus was “imported” by wealthy Brazilians, the ones who have the means to travel, and spread via housekeepers to the favelas. The only deaths so far in the capital happened on “our” – the well-to-do – side of the lake, not – yet – in the townships. Reversed world: Whereas in the past the employers were cautious not to contract any diseases brought in from the favelas and townships, it is now the housemaid who anxiously keeps her distance from the “senhora”.
Meanwhile, while politicians are fighting each other, the drug cartels in the favelas took policy in their own hands: They impose curfews, distribute flyers with information on the virus, force the municipalities to send water trucks to the slums, guarantee “law and order”. And they enforce that everyone selling drugs wears gloves. It is the same old story: Whenever a government fails other forces fill the void, as seen with the Mafia in Italy, Hezbollah in Lebanon or – as we witness now – with the gangs in Brazil. It will be interesting to see how their strengthened power will play out in the future when things are back to normal. In the meantime, poor Brazilians have the “choice” between pest and cholera: Die of starvation or of the virus. The latter at least leaves them a chance…